article · British Journal of Political Science · 2021
Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects
Lucas M. Novaes, Luis Schiumerini
Cited by 11Abstract and details only
Abstract
Abstract Why do incumbents enjoy an electoral advantage in some political settings but suffer from a disadvantage in others? We propose a novel explanation linking variation in incumbency effects with exogenous commodity shocks. While voters attempt to sanction incumbents for economic performance, changes in commodity prices affect their evaluations and condition the electoral fortunes of incumbents vis-à-vis challengers. We test our argument in Brazilian municipalities, combining a plausibly exogenous measure of variation in commodity prices with a close election regression discontinuity design. Our results show that increases in the price of agricultural commodities greatly enhance the prospects of incumbents, while negative shocks exacerbate their incumbency disadvantage, especially in rural municipalities. Further investigation suggests that commodity shocks do not operate via voter learning about candidate quality, changes in the pool of candidates, shifts in voter preferences, or strategic elite investments. Instead, we find suggestive evidence that commodity shocks affect voters' evaluations through their effect on local economic growth.
Cite this paper
Novaes, L. M., & Schiumerini, L. (2021). Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects. British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 1689–1708. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478
Novaes, Lucas M., and Luis Schiumerini. “Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects.” British Journal of Political Science, vol. 52, no. 4, 2021, pp. 1689–708, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478.
Novaes, Lucas M., and Luis Schiumerini. 2021. “Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects.” British Journal of Political Science 52 (4): 1689–708. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478.
Novaes, L.M. and Schiumerini, L. (2021) ‘Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects’, British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), pp. 1689–1708. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478.
@article{novaes2021commodity,
title = {{Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects}},
author = {Novaes, Lucas M. and Schiumerini, Luis},
journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
volume = {52},
number = {4},
pages = {1689--1708},
year = {2021},
doi = {10.1017/s0007123421000478}
}Made from the index record. Check names, capitalisation and page numbers against the paper. Need another style? AI for Research has over 10,000.